Rice Production in Northeast India: Decomposition and Trend Analysis

Abstract

The study analyse the Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR), instability using
Cuddy-Della Valle Index, estimated rice requirement with the projected population till 2035.
Decomposition analysis was used to examine how area and yield contributed to the overall
production of rice in North Eastern (NE) India. The study was conducted for the period of 54
years (1966-67 to 2019-20) on state-wise area under, production and yield of rice in NE India.
The whole time period was divided into three phases viz., phase I (1966-67 to 1983-84),
phase II (1984-85 to 2001-2002), phase III (2002-03 to 2019-20) making almost two decades
each and the overall period as phase IV (1966-67 to 2019-20) based on availability of data.
Positive significant growth in area under, production and yield of rice was experienced in NE
India during 1966-2019. The study showed that yield effect contribute the most to overall
increase in production of rice in the region. The state Tripura has the highest growth in yield
of rice (2.59%) with low instability while, Manipur has the lowest growth in yield (0.96%)
with medium instability. Among the NE states, five states namely Assam, Manipur,
Meghalaya, Mizoram and Sikkim were deficit in rice production during 2019. The total
requirement of rice in NE during 2022 and 2035 was estimated to be 7549 thousand MT and
8347 thousand MT (increased by 10.57%), respectively. Thus, the study recommended the
application of new agronomic practices and cultivation of improved varieties to increase
production and yield instead of increasing area under cultivation considering the scarcity of
land.