Model Formulation and Comparative Analysis of Daily Confirmed Cases due to Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic 2020

Abstract

The world health organization (WHO) situation report dated January 21, 2020, highlighted the spread of unknown causes detected in Wuhan city, Hubei Province, China, which was subsequently notified as COVID-19. In 2 months, this virus has shown its atrocious destructive nature worldwide like a pandemic. The infection rate and the death rate have increased tremendously day by day. WHO reported the number of confirmed cases as of May 3, 2020, was around three million three hundred forty-nine thousand seven hundred and eighty-sixed while the total deaths all over the world were two hundred thirty-eight thousand six hundred and twenty-eight. In the present work, the mathematical modeling of the daily reported COVID-19 cases in the country viz. Italy, Spain, the United States of America (USA), China, and India have been presented. Using different statistical techniques, the models have been formulated based on data reported in the WHO situation report 1-103 from January 21 to May 3. Three types of models, viz. polynomial, Gaussian, and Fourier, have been developed, and the best-fitted model can be used to predict the future trends of the new COVID-19 cases based on the current situation. The comparative analysis has been done, and the nature of the COVID-19 pandemic has been presented in the form mathematical model. The future prediction of new affected cases can be made with the help of these models. This paper also presented how different countries are fighting against this pandemic with the great challenge of protecting a huge population.