Time Series Trend of Bilharzial Bladder Cancer in Egypt and its relation to Climate Change: A study from 1995-2005

Abstract

The present ecological study estimated time series trend of relative frequencies (RF) of bilharzial bladder cancer in different Egyptian governorates in relation to climate change during the period 1995-2005. Results revealed that the mean air temperature has positive trend in all the governorates and the number of days of maximum temperature of 45 °C or more was increased in Upper Egypt, but, did not experience increase in the rest of Egypt. RF was significantly declined in most of Urban, Upper and Lower Egypt, while there was no change in RF trend in Frontier governorates. Male to Female ratio was above 2:1 in most of the Urban and Upper Egyptian governorates, and less than 2:1 in Lower Egypt, except in Ismailia. In conclusion: RF of bilharzial bladder cancer seemed to be declined with time in most of the Egyptian governorates, with the increase in the air temperature. But, this relationship could not be proved and further epidemiological studies are required